Thursday, April 02, 2009

Jackets? Playoffs?

The past two times I happened to be wearing my Columbus Blue Jackets shirt when going out to eat for lunch I have been asked if they are going to make the playoffs. They are definitely not in yet but are in fairly good shape. So I sat down during lunch to figure things out.

First, the win against Nashville was huge.

There are 5 games and 10 points left in the season. To be completely safe from the Anaheim Ducks and Nashville Predators the teams 7 of the remaining 10 points. At 6 points we would probably be edged by the Ducks because they (would) have more wins. To be completely safe from the St Louis Blues sitting at 9th, the team needs 6 of the 10 points. Columbus could probably do it with 5 points but would have to win more games because a tie in games won would give the edge to the Blue who have a better head to head record against Columbus. To be safe from the Wild and Oilers the teams needs 4 of the 10 points, but could do it with 3 points. This assumes these five teams win all of their remaining 5 games and get the full 10 points.

Here are our remaining games:

  • Apr 4 at Predators; loss
  • Apr 5 vs Blackhawks; win
  • Apr 8 at Blackhawks; loss
  • Apr 10 at Blues; loss
  • Apr 11 vs Wild; win
I think we will manage 4 points in the next 5 games. Sneaking out with a point in an overtime loss in any of the 3 away games would be great. The Blues have games against the ailing Coyotes, Stars and Avalanche and their last home game of the season against Columbus. They won't get points in Detroit unless the Wings have a brain fart like the last time Columbus visited. So 8 points to the Blues. The Predators will likely get 4 points at home and at least 1 in their 3 away games; so let's say 5 points. The Ducks have 2 games against the conference leading San Jose Sharks but I think they will get 1 point from the home/home melee. They will probably get 2 points against the Coyotes and Stars giving them 5 points.

So:

  • 6th Jackets 88 + 4 = 92
  • 7th Ducks 84 + 5 = 89
  • 8th Predators 84 + 5 = 89
  • 9th Blues 83 + 8 = 91
or
  • 6th Jackets 92 points
  • 7th Blues 91 points
  • 8th Ducks 89 points
  • 9th Predators 89 points, miss playoffs
We aren't in yet but I think the team will make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.

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